Thursday, January 03, 2008

Caucus Day; How Much of a Prognosticator Am I?

For the first time in many years, I've gotten extremely interested in the outcome of the caucuses and primaries -- and at a relatively late point, considering how long the campaign season has already been running. Before the results in Iowa move too far along, let me throw up my predictions, based on absolutely nothing except my gut:

Democratic Caucus

Barack Obama
John Edwards
Hillary Clinton

Republican Caucus

Mike Hucakabee
John McCain
Mitt Romney

Update number 1 (8:52 p.m.): Democrats - Clinton 33, Edwards 33, Obama 32
Republicans - Huckabee 36, Romney - 23, Thompson - 14

Update number 2 (10:52 p.m.): Democrats - Obama 38, Edwards 30, Clinton 29
Republicans - Hucakabee 34, Romney 25, Thompson - 13

Enough of the results have come in that they've called it for both sides, so Obama and Huckabee are the big winners at this point. The Obama win is for me personally a mixed blessing: I really would relish seeing Hillary crash and burn in the primaries, but she's also the one candidate that I think would really unify the GOP in the general election. New Hampshire is going to be really interesting next Tuesday; can Huckabee keep up the momentum? Will McCain pick up where he left off in New Hampshire? Is Obama just the surprise du jour, or is today's win really going to put a hurt on Edwards and Clinton?

I'll put my predictions for New Hampshire up on Monday; now it's time to go watch the end of the Virginia Tech - Kansas game...


Dave said...

Do the results from Iowa tilt your allegiance in any particular direction? I'm happy to see Obama and Edwards finish 1-2. I think they would make an impressive pairing in either order as the Democratic candidates. Huckabee/McCain would be my best scenario for a Republican ticket that actually reached the White House, not that I hope or expect for that to happen. :o) But if the Democrats do blow it, those two would be the most appealing to me, in either order.

NoVA Dad said...

Hey Dave; these results really don't tilt me one way or another, mostly because I still haven't made up my mind (and I've still got a month to go before the primaries in Virginia). I've done several of those informal "match your opinions with a candidate" survey, and they seem to pretty consistently put me in the category of McCain voters. I've met Huckabee on two occasions, once in 1996 when I was his driver for a day and once several years later at an Alabama Republican Party event, and he was a very impressive person.

It's going to be really interesting to see how everything plays out, and how much the media makes of Hillary's third-place finish over the next several days.

Dad said...

Perhaps someone with a lot of time on his or her hands (and on a computer) could devise some sort of quiz that would match your opinions with those of the candidates - just like those crazy "personality" tests that are always popping up somewhere online! Then you could be placed in a "camp." (Of course with the candidates and their frequent changing course, who knows what their actual opinions might be after THEY take the quiz!

NoVA Dad said...

They actually do have quizzes like that; the most recent one I saw was on the Fox News website. Of course, every one can potentially tell you to vote for someone different, leaving you even more confused than before!

Dave said...

I took a quiz or two a few months ago each time the result came back that Mike Gravel was my ideal candidate.

Well, sorry to dismiss your hard work, O wise quiz makers, but personality, tact and temperament DOES have something to do with how I cast my vote!

Barbara (aka Layla) said...

Um, got any tips on the horses? You're good :)

Happy New Year to you and your family.